EVALUASI PERFORMA TEMPORAL PADA MODEL HUJAN CORDEX-SEA CMIP5
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22437/jop.v11i3.55471Keywords:
Pemodelan hujan, CORDEX-SEA, Evaluasi model, ERA5, Taylor skill scoreAbstract
Pemodelan curah hujan menjadi tantangan besar bagi model iklim. Project simulasi CORDEX-SEA melakukan downsacle dari model iklim global dan menyediakan serangkaian model iklim regional yang beresolusi tinggi dan terlengkap untuk Asia Tenggara. Terdapat kesenjangan yang cukup besar dalam literatur penelitian mengenai evaluasi performa model curah hujan dalam simulasi ini. Sebagian besar evaluasi yang ada hanya berfokus pada aspek spasial. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi performa temporal periode tahun 1976-2005 terhadap sembilan model hujan pada database CORDEX-SEA dan dibandingkan dengan data referensi GPCP dan data reanalisis ERA5. Evaluasi kemampuan model dilakukan dengan menggunakan skor Taylor dan bantuan koding Python. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada model yang secara konsisten berkinerja baik di semua aspek dan sub wilayah penelitian. Namun model NorESM1_d seringkali mengungguli model lainnya, diikuti oleh HadGEM2_a dan HadGEM2_c. Sebagian besar model di wilayah Laut Cina Selatan dan setengah dari model di wilayah Indonesia memiliki kemampuan rendah. Berdasarkan korelasi siklus tahunan dan analisis Transformasi Fourier (FFT), rata-rata ensemble CORDEX-SEA mengungguli semua model, tetapi tidak dalam analisis tren dan analisis dengan plot wavelet. Temuan ini memberikan wawasan berharga mengenai pemilihan model hujan yang tepat untuk analisis proyeksi iklim di seluruh Asia Tenggara berdasarkan analisis aspek temporal.
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