Import demand potential for Indonesian rubber products in ASEAN countries

Authors

  • Zainuddin Zainuddin Agribusiness Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Batanghari, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v10i2.14561

Keywords:

ASEAN, Import potential, Indonesia, Rubber products

Abstract

Increasing imports of rubber products from Indonesia is the key to the success of the downstream policy of rubber products to gain added value and job opportunities in the country. The rubber product market in ASEAN is more dynamic, and Indonesia must focus on strengthening competitiveness and exploiting potential markets. This paper aims to describe the potential demand for imports of Indonesian rubber products in ASEAN countries, especially Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The flow of imports of rubber products uses the stochastic frontier panel data model to determine the potential demand for imports of Indonesian rubber products. Indonesian rubber products compete fiercely with similar industries in importing and exporting countries from East Asia. Indonesia mostly exports rubber products with HS codes 4015 and 4016 in the form of gloves, mittens, and mitts, rubber cellular, floor coverings and mats, erasers, gaskets and rings, boats, and fender docks to all markets in ASEAN countries. They were followed by rubber products with HS code 4010 in the form of conveyor belts or transmission belts from vulcanized rubber. The potential for import demand for other types of Indonesian rubber products (code HS4014, 4009, 4008) in ASEAN countries is relatively small and is growing slowly. Overall, the potential demand for imports of Indonesian rubber products tends to decline in ASEAN countries, as well as the actual imports of rubber products from Indonesia compared to their potential, which also declines slowly.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Amir, A. (2004). Strategi Memasuki Pasar Ekspor. Jakarta: Lembaga Manajemen PPM dan Penerbit PPM

Armstrong, S. (2008). Asian Trade Structures and Trade Potential: An initial analysis of South and East Asian Trade. Paper presented at the Conference on the Micro-Economic Foundation of Economic Policy Performance in Asia, 3-4 April, New Delhi.

Arvis, J. F., Yann, D. Shepherd, B. & Chorthip, U. (2012). Trade Costs in the Developing World: 1995 – 2010. Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade. ARTNeT Working Paper Series. No. 121/December 2012, Bangkok, ESCAP. Available at www.artnetontrade.org.

Aslam, M. (2018). ASEAN China FTA and the impact on Indonesia manufacturing industry. Jati-Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, 23(1), 13-46

Battese, G. E. & Coelli, T. J. (1988). Prediction of firm-level technical efficiencies with a generalized frontier production function and panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 38(3), 387-399.

Bergstrand, J.H. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-481.

Breitung, J. (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, in: B. Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, Amsterdam, 15, 161-178.

Cheong, J., Kwak, D. W., & Tang, K. K. (2018). The trade effects of tariffs and non-tariff changes of preferential trade agreements. Economic Modelling, 70, 370-382. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.08.011.

Drysdale., P. D., Y. Huang., & Kalirajan, K. (2000). China's Trade Efficiency: Measurement and Determinants, in P. Drysdale, Y. Zhang and L. Song (eds) APEC and Liberalisation of the Chinese economy, Canberra, Asia Pacific Press.

Djankov, S., F. Caroline and Cong, S.P. (2010). Trading on time. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 166-173.

Deluna, R.J., and Edgardo, C. (2014). Philippine Export Efficiency and Potential: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. MPRA Paper No. 53580, posted 10 Feb 2014 UTC. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53580/

Egger, P. (2002). An econometric view on the estimation of gravity models and the calculation of trade potentials. The World Economy, 25(2), 297-312. doi:10.1111/1467-9701.00432

Evelyn S. D & Chandran. V.G.R. (2019). Unlocking the Trade Potential in China-ASEAN Relations. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 36(3), 380–99.

Fajrin, A., Hartono, S., & Waluyati, L.R. (2015). Permintaan Gula Rafinasi pada Industri Makanan Minuman dan Farmasi di Indonesia. Agro Ekonomi, 26(2), 150-158. doi:10.22146/agroekonomi.17267

Glauben, T., Loy, J. P. (2002). Pricing-to-market versus residual demand elacticity analysis of imperfect competition in food exports: Evidence from Germany. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 1(1), 1-21

Heo, Y., & Doanh, N. K. (2015). Trade flows and IPR protection: a dynamic analysis of the experience of ASEAN-6 Countries. Asian International Studies Review, 16(1), 59-74. doi:10.16934/isr.16.1.201506.59.

Hai, N. T. H, and Thang, D.N. (2017). The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and Vietnam’s Trade Efficiency. Asian Social Science, 13(4), 192-200.

International Trade Centre. (2018). Export potential map. Retrieved, December 8, 2018, from http://www.itc.org/

Knetter, M. M. (1993). International comparisons of pricing-to-market behavior. American Economic Review, 83(3), 473–486

Kalirajan., K. & Findlay, C. (2005). Estimating Potential Trade Using Gravity Models: A Suggested Methodology, GRIPS-FASID Joint Graduate Programme, Tokyo, Japan.

Khorana, S., & Narayanan, B. G. (2017). Modelling effects of tariff liberalization on India’s key export sectors: analysis of the EU–India Free Trade Agreement. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 11(1), 1-22. doi:10.1177/0973801016676016.

Kumar, S., & Prabhakar, P. (2017). India’s trade potential and free trade agreements: a stochastic frontier gravity approach. Global Economy Journal, 17(1), 1-19. doi:10.1515/gej-2016- 0074

Linnemann, H. (1966). An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.

Limão, N., & Venables, A. J. (2001). Infrastructure, geographical disadvantage, transport costs, and trade. The World Bank Economic Review, 15(3), 451-479. doi:10.1093/wber/15.3.451.

Levin, A, Lin, C. F & Chu, C. S. J (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.

Lairson, T.D. & Skidmore, D. (2017). International Political Economy: The Struggle for Power and Wealth. New York (USA): Routledge.

Linh, P.H, Doanh, N.K & Quynh, N.N (2019). Determinants of Vietnam’s Potential Trade: A Case Study of Agricultural Exports to the European Union. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, 9(1), 33-46.

Liu, A., Lu, C., & Wang, Z. (2020). The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries. China Economic Review, 61, 1-17. doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2018.10.001.

Memduh, A. D., B. Mustafa, and Utku, U. (2017). The Impact of Competitiveness on Trade Efficiency: The Asian Experience by Using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, 5(4), 1-15.

Makano, M. (2019). Changing Resource-Based Manufacturing Industry: The Case of the Rubber Industry in Malaysia and Thailand, in Emerging States at Crossroads, ed. Keiichi Tsunekawa and Yasuyuki Todo (Editors). Emerging-Economy State and International Policy Studies. 145-162. Springer Link.

Niroomand, F., M. Hajilee., & Al Nasser, O. M (2014). Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies. Applied Economics, 46(13), 1490-1498.

Nasrudin, Sinaga, B.M., Firdaus, M., Walujadi, D. 2015. Dampak ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) Terhadap Kinerja Perekonomian dan Sektor Pertanian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang perdagangan, 9(1), 1-23

Pasaribu, T.W., & Daulay, M. (2013). Analisis Permintaan Impor Bawang Merah di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 1(4), 14-26

Perdana, R.P.(2019). Kinerja Ekonomi Karet dan Strategi Pengembangan Hilirisasinya di Indonesia. Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi, 37(1), 25-39.

Sunaryo, S. (2001). Ekonomi Manajerial Aplikasi Teori Ekonomi Mikro. Jakarta: Erlangga

Sherlock, J., and Reuvid, J. (2011). International trade: An Essential Guide to the principles and Practice of Export. London. England: Kogan Page Limited.

Viorica, E. D. (2015). Econometric analysis of foreign trade efficiency of E.U. Members Using Gravity Equations. Procedia Economics and Finance, 20, 670-678. doi:10.1016/s2212- 5671(15)00122-7.

United Nation & World Trade Organization (2012). A practical guide to trade policy analysis. Available online: http://vi.unctad.org/tpa.

United Nation Comtrade. (2020). Comtrade Database Statistic. Available online: http://www.comtrade.org/

Zheng, Y., Shao, Y., & Wang, S. (2017). The determinants of Chinese nonferrous metals imports and exports. Resources Policy, 53, 238-246. doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.06.003.

Zainuddin, Z., Sinaga, B.M., Hartoyo, S., & Erwidodo, E. (2019). Dampak Penurunan Tarif Impor, Investasi dan Relokasi Industri Ban Terhadap Perdagangan Karet Alam dan ban Indonesia di Pasar Dunia. Buletin Ilimiah Litbang Perdagangan, 13(1), 71- 98. doi: https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v13i1.341

Downloads

Published

2022-06-30

How to Cite

Zainuddin, Z. (2022). Import demand potential for Indonesian rubber products in ASEAN countries. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 10(2), 75 - 90. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v10i2.14561