Spatial Distribution of Dengue Incidence and Climate Variability in West Java, Indonesia, 2019-2023

Authors

  • Muhamad Zidan Yusariza Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta, Indonesia Author
  • Minsarnawati Tahangnacca Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta, Indonesia Author
  • Meliana Sari Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta, Indonesia Author
  • Arif Sumantri Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta, Indonesia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/jkmj.v10i1.54949

Keywords:

Dengue, climate variability, spatial analysis, West Java, GIS

Abstract

Dengue remains a major vector-borne disease and a persistent public health problem in Indonesia. West Java is one of the provinces with a high dengue burden, while climatic variability may shape ecological conditions that support Aedes mosquito survival and dengue transmission. This study aimed to describe the spatial distribution of dengue incidence according to rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in West Java from 2019 to 2023. A descriptive ecological time-series study was conducted using aggregated dengue data from 27 districts/cities and climate data from four meteorological stations managed by the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. Dengue incidence rates were mapped at the district/city level, while climate variables were interpolated using the Inverse Distance Weighting method in QGIS and classified with natural breaks. Spatial overlay was used to identify visual coincidence between dengue incidence and climate variability. Dengue incidence showed an uneven spatial pattern, with higher incidence repeatedly observed in Bandung Raya, parts of Bogor, Sumedang, and Tasikmalaya. Areas with higher dengue incidence often coincided with moderate-to-high rainfall, warm temperatures, high relative humidity, and relatively low wind speed. These findings suggest that integrating climate information into routine dengue surveillance may support risk stratification and early warning in West Java. Further analytical studies are needed to quantify the association between climate variability and dengue incidence.

References

1. WHO. Dengue: global situation, surveillance and progress – 2024 update [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2025 Dec. p. 665–78. Report Weekly Epidemiological Record, No 52, 26 December 2025. Available from: https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/b405cbfa-3642-4da1-a45e-627c58cec6f2/content

2. Kemenkes RI. Beware of Dengue Fever (Waspada Demam Berdarah Dengue). Health Crisis Center of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia [Internet]. 2026 Feb 2 [cited 2026 Mar 4]. Available from: https://pusatkrisis.kemkes.go.id/waspada-demam-berdarah-dengue

3. Dinas Kesehatan Jawa Barat. Number of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Cases by Regency/City in West Java 2016-2024 (Jumlah Kasus Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) Berdasarkan Kabupaten/Kota di Jawa Barat 2016 - 2024) [Dataset] [Internet]. Jawa Barat; 2025 [cited 2026 Feb 1]. Available from: https://opendata.jabarprov.go.id/id/dataset/jumlah-kasus-penyakit-demam-berdarah-dengue-dbd-berdasarkan-kabupatenkota-di-jawa-barat

4. Lowe R, Lee SA, O’Reilly KM, Brady OJ, Bastos L, Carrasco-Escobar G, et al. Combined Effects Of Hydrometeorological Hazards And Urbanisation On Dengue Risk In Brazil: A Spatiotemporal Modelling Study. Lancet Planet Health. 2021 Apr;5(4):e209–19. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30292-8

5. Djaafara BA, Elyazar IRF, Silalahi FSM, Surya A, Handito A, Thohir B, et al. Dengue Transmission Heterogeneity Across Indonesia’s Archipelago: Climate-Driven Spatiotemporal Patterns And Policy Implications. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2026 Mar 17;20(3):e0014135. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0014135

6. M MAF, Ar FA, M EN, H MH, S H, H IR. Spatial And Breeding Site Analysis Of Aedes Spp. At Dengue-Prone Areas In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Int J Environ Health Res. 2026 Jan 2;36(1):93–112. doi:10.1080/09603123.2025.2488484

7. Nosrat C, Altamirano J, Anyamba A, Caldwell JM, Damoah R, Mutuku F, et al. Impact Of Recent Climate Extremes on Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission In Kenya. Viennet E, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Mar 18;15(3):e0009182. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009182

8. Mohd Hardy Abdullah NA, Dom NC, Pradhan B, Salleh SA, Dapari R. Temporal Associations Between Microclimate, Adult Aedes Mosquito Indices, And Dengue Cases At The Residence Level In Malaysia: Implications For Targeted Interventions. Chowdhury R, editor. PLOS ONE. 2025 Feb 3;20(2):e0316564. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0316564

9. Bone T, Kaunang WPJ, Langi F. The Relationship Between Rainfall, Air Temperature And Humidity With The Incidence Of Dengue Fever In Manado City In 2015-2020 (Hubungan Antara Curah Hujan, Suhu Udara Dan Kelembaban Dengan Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue Di Kota Manado Tahun 2015-2020). J KESMAS. 2021 Mei;Vol. 10:36–45. doi:https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/kesmas/article/view/35109

10. Li Y, Dou Q, Lu Y, Xiang H, Yu X, Liu S. Effects of ambient temperature and precipitation on the risk of dengue fever: A systematic review and updated meta-analysis. Environ Res. 2020 Dec;191:110043. doi:10.1016/j.envres.2020.110043

11. Mordecai EA, Caldwell JM, Grossman MK, Lippi CA, Johnson LR, Neira M, et al. Thermal Biology Of Mosquito‐Borne Disease. Byers J (Jeb), editor. Ecol Lett. 2019 Oct;22(10):1690–708. doi:10.1111/ele.13335

12. Gui H, Gwee S, Koh J, Pang J. Weather Factors Associated with Reduced Risk of Dengue Transmission in an Urbanized Tropical City. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 29;19(1):339. doi:10.3390/ijerph19010339

13. Alonso San Alberto D, Rusch C, Riffell JA. Experiments and Analysis of Mosquito Flight Behaviors in a Wind Tunnel: An Introduction. Cold Spring Harb Protoc. 2024 Jun;2024(6):pdb.top107674. doi:10.1101/pdb.top107674

14. Carrieri M, Albieri A, Angelini P, Soracase M, Dottori M, Antolini G, et al. Effects of the Weather on the Seasonal Population Trend of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Northern Italy. Insects. 2023 Nov 15;14(11):879. doi:10.3390/insects14110879

15. Barbulescu A, Bautu A, Bautu E. Optimizing Inverse Distance Weighting with Particle Swarm Optimization. Appl Sci. 2020 Mar 18;10(6):2054. doi:10.3390/app10062054

16. Zhang R, Li Y, Chen M, Zheng H, Zhao J, Li S, et al. Benchmarking Spatial Interpolation Methods for Long-Term Meteorological Exposure Assessment in China: Comparing Inverse Distance Weighting and Ordinary Kriging in Climate-Health Research. Environ Health Insights. 2026 Mar;20:11786302261433113. doi:10.1177/11786302261433113

17. Karimah RZ, Azzahmi ZZ, Prasetya AD, Apsari AND, Fatah F, Azziz KN. Spatial Modeling of Rainfall Prediction Using the Inverse Distance Weighting Method in the West Sumatra Region in 2026 (Pemodelan Spasial Prediksi Curah Hujan Melalui Metode Inverse Distance Weighting Di Wilayah Sumatera Barat Tahun 2026). Geomedia Maj Ilm Dan Inf Kegeografian. 2024 Jul 18;22(1):95–103. doi:10.21831/gm.v22i1.68239

18. Syofetim Esther Novi T. Spatial Analysis of Diarrheal Incidence Distribution Based on Climate Factors in Batam City 2020-2023 (Analisis Spasial Sebaran Kejadian Diare Berdasarkan Faktor Iklim di Kota Batam Tahun 2020-2023). J Nas Kesehat Lingkung Glob. 2025;6(2):37–45. doi:10.7454/jnklg.v6i2.1054

19. Gurevitz JM, Antman JG, Laneri K, Morales JM. Temperature, Traveling, Slums, And Housing Drive Dengue Transmission In A Non-Endemic Metropolis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Jun;15(6):1–22. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465

20. Ayuningtyas A. Analysis of the Relationship between Population Density and the Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in West Java Province (Analisis Hubungan Kepadatan Penduduk dengan Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Provinsi Jawa Barat). J Ilm Permas J Ilm STIKES Kendal. 2023 Mar 3;13(2):419–26. doi:10.32583/pskm.v13i2.772

21. Ridha MR, Yudhastuti R, Ambar Garjito T, Norjanah N, Juhairiyah J, Andiarsa D, et al. Spatial autocorrelation of dengue in relation to population density in Balangan District, Indonesia: an ecological study. Int J Public Health Sci IJPHS. 2024 Sep 1;13(3):1030. doi:10.11591/ijphs.v13i3.24073

22. Abdullah NAMH, Dom NC, Salleh SA, Salim H, Precha N, Dapari R. Spatiotemporal Dynamics Of Dengue Hotspots In An Urbanizing Landscape: A Five-Year Analysis In Selangor, Malaysia. Clin Epidemiol Glob Health. 2025;32:101966. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cegh.2025.101966

23. Agustina E, Emil MFP. Breeding Place Preference of Aedes sp. at the Tsunami Area Banda Aceh City. J Biotechnol Nat Sci. 2024 Jul 3;4(1):01–8. doi:10.12928/jbns.v4i1.10400

24. Rahman MdS, Faruk MdO, Tanjila S, Sabbir NM, Haider N, Chowdhury S. Entomological survey for identification of Aedes larval breeding sites and their distribution in Chattogram, Bangladesh. Beni-Suef Univ J Basic Appl Sci. 2021 May 13;10(1):32. doi:10.1186/s43088-021-00122-x

25. Joyodiningrat MH, Kurniawan Y. Analysis of the Influence of Climate Variability on Dengue Fever Cases Using a Regression Model Approach: A Case Study of Bandung City (Analisa Pengaruh Variabilitas Iklim Terhadap Kasus Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Model Regresi: Studi Kasus Kota Bandung). Creat Res J. 2024 Dec 13;10(02):85–96. doi:10.34147/crj.v10i02.344

26. Dissa Nur Olivia, Suherman, Sekarputri AL. The Influence of Weather Factors (Rainfall, Humidity, and Temperature) on the Incidence of Dengue Fever (Pengaruh Faktor Cuaca (Curah Hujan, Kelembapan, dan Suhu) Terhadap Kejadian DBD). Health Med Sci. 2025 May 13;2(3):16. doi:10.47134/phms.v2i3.412

27. Afreli SW, Ichwansyah F, Ariscasari P. Analysis of Climate Change and Dengue Fever Incidence in Banda Aceh City in 2022-2024 (Analisis Perubahan Iklim dengan Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Kota Banda Aceh Tahun 2022-2024). SEHATI J Kesehat. 2025 Aug 3;5(2):131–41. doi:10.52364/sehati.v5i2.106

28. Rakhmatsani L, Susanna D. Ecological Study of Climate Relationships to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Incidences in Bogor Regency 2013-2022 (Studi Ekologi Hubungan Iklim Terhadap Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Kabupaten Bogor Tahun 2013-2022). J Kesehat Lingkung Indones. 2024 Jun 1;23(2):207–14. doi:10.14710/jkli.23.2.207-214

29. Nik Abdull Halim NMH, Che Dom N, Dapari R, Salim H, Precha N. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effects of temperature on the development and survival of the Aedes mosquito. Front Public Health. 2022;Volume 10-2022. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1074028

30. Sureshkumar S, Shekhar S. Impact Of Urban Heat Island Effect On Dengue Incidence: A Remote Sensing Approach Using Thermal And High-Resolution Optical Imagery. BMC Public Health. 2025 Aug 25;25(1):2914. doi:10.1186/s12889-025-23763-4

31. Lesmana O, Halim Rd. Overview of the Density Level of Aedes Aegypti Mosquito Larvae in Kenali Asam Bawah Subdistrict, Jambi City (Gambaran Tingkat Kepadatan Jentik Nyamuk Aedes Aegypti di Kelurahan Kenali Asam Bawah Kota Jambi). J Kesmas Jambi. 2020 Sep 23;4(2):59–69. doi:10.22437/jkmj.v4i2.10571

32. Liu Z, Zhang Q, Li L, He J, Guo J, Wang Z, et al. The effect of temperature on dengue virus transmission by Aedes mosquitoes. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2023 Sep 21;13:1242173. doi:10.3389/fcimb.2023.1242173

33. Saputri FW, Mars SP, Sri DS. Dynamics of Climate Factors on Dengue Fever Incidence (Dynamics of Climate Factors on Dengue Fever Incidence). Holistik J Kesehat. 2025 Dec 9;19(9):2759–65. doi:10.33024/hjk.v19i9.1866

34. Cui G, Zhong S, Zheng T, Li Z, Zhang X, Li C, et al. Aedes albopictus life table: environment, food, and age dependence survivorship and reproduction in a tropical area. Parasit Vectors. 2021 Nov 7;14(1):568. doi:10.1186/s13071-021-05081-x

35. Ouédraogo JCRP, Ilboudo S, Tetteh RJ, Kyei C, Lougué S, Ouédraogo WT, et al. Effects of environmental factors on dengue incidence in the Central Region, Burkina Faso: A time series analyses. Colston JM, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025 Jul 28;19(7):e0013356. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0013356

36. Gómez Gómez RE, Kim J, Hong K, Jang JY, Kisiju T, Kim S, et al. Association between Climate Factors and Dengue Fever in Asuncion, Paraguay: A Generalized Additive Model. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 26;19(19):12192. doi:10.3390/ijerph191912192

37. Prabowo NA, Ardyanto TD, Myrtha R, Apriningsih H, Dyanneza F, Kuncorowati NDA, et al. The Dynamics of Rainfall and Humidity in Dengue Fever Epidemiology: A Case Study of Surakarta City. Bul Poltanesa. 2025 Dec 20;26(2). doi:10.51967/tanesa.v26i2.3469

38. Rojali R, Restiaty I, Lisa D, Setyadi MD. The Relationship Between Climate Change and Dengue Fever (DBD) Incidences in East Jakarta (Hubungan Perubahan Iklim Dengan Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (Dbd) Di Kota Administrasi Jakarta Timur). Sulolipu Media Komun Sivitas Akad Dan Masy. 2024 Jan 1;23(1):172–86. doi:10.32382/sulo.v23i1.427

39. Erdi Komara, Nur Endah Wahyuningsih, Onny Setiani. The Relationship Between Weather And Population Density And Dengue Fever Incidence: Literature Review (Hubungan Cuaca dan Kepadatan Penduduk dengan Kejadian DBD: Literature Review). Media Publ Promosi Kesehat Indones MPPKI. 2024 Apr 1;7(4):864–70. doi:10.56338/mppki.v7i4.5172

40. Sutriyawan A, Kurniati N, Novianti N, Farida U, Yusanti L, Destriani SN, et al. Analysis Of Temperature, Humidity, Rainfall, And Wind Velocity On Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever In Bandung Municipality. Russ J Infect Immun. 2024 Apr 28;14(1):155–62. doi:10.15789/2220-7619-AOT-2110

Downloads

Published

2026-03-31