Model Simulasi untuk Menentukan Harga Pokok Pembelian Tandan Buah Segar di Pabrik Kelapa Sawit Berdasarkan Analisis Data Historis Harga

Yusuf Budianto; Faizul Mubarok

doi:10.22437/jaku.v11i02.53983

Penulis

Yusuf Budianto Universitas Terbuka, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia
Faizul Mubarok Universitas Terbuka, DKI Jakarta, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/jaku.v11i02.53983

Kata Kunci:

Harga CPO, PK, TBS, Pabrik Kelapa Sawit, Rendemen Produksi, VECM, Simulasi Harga

Abstrak

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model simulasi dalam menentukan harga pokok pembelian (HPP) Tandan Buah Segar (TBS) di pabrik kelapa sawit, berdasarkan data historis dan faktor-faktor produksi utama, termasuk harga CPO, harga PK, rendemen produksi (OER dan KER), upah pengolahan, serta biaya transportasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrika dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antar variabel. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga CPO dan harga PK memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap harga pembelian TBS, sementara rendemen produksi memberikan kontribusi positif dan signifikan dalam jangka panjang. Sebaliknya, upah pengolahan dan biaya transportasi menunjukkan pengaruh negatif terhadap biaya TBS. Nilai Error Correction Term (ECT) yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian harga yang mendorong harga TBS kembali menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Sebagai kesimpulan, model yang dikembangkan mampu menangkap interaksi dinamis antara faktor pasar dan faktor produksi, sehingga dapat mendukung strategi penetapan harga dan meningkatkan profitabilitas dalam industri kelapa sawit.

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