Inflation convergence and the determinant factors: A case study on 31 provinces in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v7i4.8648Keywords:
Convergence, Panel data, Regional inflationAbstract
This study aims to estimate (the possibility) the inflation convergence among regionals in Indonesia and also analyze the determinant/source factor of the regional inflation. The population of this study consists of 31 provinces by using secondary data of the 2008-2017 period. Consumer Price Index becomes the dependent variable while Gross Regional Domestic Product, Provincial Minimum Wage, credit and Open Unemployment Level become the independent variable. This research uses panel data analysis and Fixed Effect Model regression estimation approach. The result showed that inflation convergence happened among regionals in Indonesia that can be seen through the X1 variable coefficient value of -0.635457 since the value of β < 0. While for the convergence speed calculation, the measurement result showed that the duration needed by the inflation to return to the initial balance or its natural value is 68 months. The study result also showed that Gross Regional Domestic Product, Provincial Minimum Wage, credit and Open Unemployment Level have significant influence on the Indonesia’s regional Inflation in 2008-2017.
Downloads
References
Alagidede, P., Coleman, S., & Adu, G. (2014). A Regional Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in Ghana: Persistence, Causes and Policy Implications. Working Paper, (October). Retrieved from https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Alagidede-Et-Al-2014-Working-Paper.pdf
Beck, G., Hubrich, K., & Marcellino, M. (2006). Regional Inflation Dynamics Within And Across Euro Area Countries And A Comparison With The US. Working Paper Series, (681). Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp681.pdf
Brown, M., Haas, R. De, & Sokolov, V. (2017). Regional Inflation , Banking Integration , and Dollarization. Review of Finance, (March), 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfx021
Brož, V., & KoÄenda, E. (2018). Dynamics and Factors of Inflation Convergence in the European Union. Journal of International Money and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.04.002
Cecchetti, S., & Li, L. (2008). Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter for Monetary Policy? Economic Inquiry, 46(4), 643–659. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00085.x
Cecchetti , S., Mark, N., Sonora, R. (2002). Price Index Convergence Amomg US Cities. International Economic Review, 43(4), 1081–1099. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00049
Dridi, J., & Nguyen, A. D. M. (2019). Assessing Inflation Convergence In The East African Community. Journal of International Development, 31(2), 119–136. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3396
Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data. Retrieved from https://assets.cambridge.org/052181/8559/sample/0521818559ws.pdf%0D
Kim, Y., Kang, K., & Ka, K. (2020). Do Bond Markets Find Inflation Targets Credible? Evidence from Five Inflation-Targeting Countries. International Review of Economics and Finance, 67(1), 66–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2019.12.007
Konopczak, K., & Welfe, A. (2017). Convergence-Driven Inflation and the Channels of its Absorption. Journal of Policy Modeling, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.02.001
Nagayasu, J. (2011). Heterogeneity and Convergence of Regional Inflation (Prices). Journal of Macroeconomics, 33(4), 711–723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2011.07.002
Pedace, R. (2013). Econometrics for Dummies. Retrieved from https://books.google.com/
Ridhwan, M., Werdaningtyas, H., & Grace, M. (2013). Dinamika Dan Heterogenitas Inflasi Regional di Indonesia. Working Paper, 11. Retrieved from https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/wp/Documents/Dinamika dan Heterogenitas Inflasi Regional di Indonesia.pdf
Silveira, J., & Lima, G. (2014). Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Satisficing Learning. Working Paper Series, (28), 1–25. Retrieved from https://econpapers.repec.org/scripts/redir.pf?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.repec.eae.fea.usp.br%2Fdocumentos%2FSilveira_Lima_28WP.pdf;h=repec:spa:wpaper:2014wpecon28
Utama, C., Wijaya, M., & Lim, C. (2017). The Role of Interest Rates and Provincial Monetary Aggregate in Maintaining Inflation in Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 19(3), 267–286. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v19i3.666
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 Rifdah Silfanah Mukhlish, Diah Wahyuningsih
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.