The relationship between climate factors and dengue fever incidence in Jambi City, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22437/proca.v1i2.50336Keywords:
Dengue, temperature, rainfall, humidity, lag effect, jambi cityAbstract
Background: Dengue is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. Climatic conditions play an important role in influencing mosquito populations and virus transmission. A change in climate conditions can lead to alterations in mosquito biology, such as breading lifespan, and virus replication rates, which in turn affect the incidence of human dengue cases. The aimed of this study is to analyze the relationship between climate factors and the dengue incidence by considering a lag effect of up to four months. Methods: This study employed a retrospective ecological time-series design. This study analysed the monthly dengue cases from January 2010 to December 2024. The data were obtained from the Jambi City Health Office. Climatic data, including minimum, maximum, and average temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), and rainfall (mm/day), were collected from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The data were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation test with lag periods ranging from 0 to 4 months. Results: The results showed that maximum and average temperatures had a significant positive correlation with dengue cases at a three-month lag (r = 0.257; p = 0.001 and r = 0.181; p = 0.016, respectively). Rainfall exhibited a significant negative correlation (r = −0.205; p = 0.006). Minimum temperature and relative humidity were not significantly associated with dengue incidence. Conclusion: Temperature and rainfall influence dengue transmission with a three-month lag effect. These findings can support early warning systems and climate-informed dengue control programs.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Muhammad Syukri, Helmi Suryani Nasution, Marta Butar-butar Butar-butar, Hasna Dewi, Herman, Indra Dwinata, Fajar Akbar, Octa Irawan
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Published with license by LPPM Universitas Jambi. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0 International). This license enables reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator.
