Unveiling external debt dynamics: Interdependencies of macroeconomic variables in ASEAN-7

Authors

  • Sukanto Sukanto Department of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics, Sriwijaya University, Indonesia
  • Azwardi Azwardi Department of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics, Sriwijaya University, Indonesia
  • Mukhlis Mukhlis Department of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics, Sriwijaya University, Indonesia
  • Dirta Pratama Atiyatna Department of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics, Sriwijaya University, Indonesia
  • Hamira Hamira Department of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics, Sriwijaya University, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v12i1.31408

Keywords:

Consumer Price Index, Epidemic budget, External debt, Infrastructure budget, Net exports

Abstract

This study explores the interplay between external debt, infrastructure investment, epidemic response funding, net exports, and the consumer price index (CPI) in seven ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Vietnam—during the period from 2000 to 2020. Data were derived from the World Bank, OECD, and IMF. This research uses the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) panel data approach to estimate the short-term and long-term relationships among the variables. Short-term results reveal that infrastructure investment, epidemic response funding, net exports, and the CPI do not significantly impact external debt. However, in the long-term analysis, epidemic response funding, net exports, and the CPI positively affect external debt. These findings have significant implications for policymakers in developing countries, especially within the ASEAN region.

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Published

2024-04-25

How to Cite

Sukanto, S., Azwardi, A., Mukhlis, M., Atiyatna, D. P., & Hamira, H. (2024). Unveiling external debt dynamics: Interdependencies of macroeconomic variables in ASEAN-7. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 12(1), 1 - 16. https://doi.org/10.22437/ppd.v12i1.31408